Verbal Lecture-08
Method of reasoning:
As we know the author of the passage uses information in the premises to arrive at the conclusion. To answer Method of reasoning questions, we need to understand what the author reasons and then we need to analyze how the author used premises to make his point.
1. What point does the author reasoned.
2. How does the author reason his point.
There are some commonly used reasoning questions that has been asked so far. These are following:
Principle:
Author apply some principle and then arrive at some certain point (i.e conclusion) using that principle in the premises. For instance,
Demand of consumer goods rises whenever people have access to cash. Therefore, we should see a surge in demand as the saving rate for the past year has been the highest in the decade.
Here notice that the author first used a principle in premise and then made his point based on this principle.
1. Belief:
Similarly, the author may make his point by stating a belief that he assume as true, and then arrive at conclusion based on his belief. We call this ‘extension of belief’. For instance,
Germans believe that spiders bring good luck. They believe in it to the extent that spider webs are a part of their Christmas tree decorations. Therefore, formation of a spider web over the royal Christmas tree is not a bad omen.
Notice that the author presented German belief, and using that belief the author has drawn his conclusion.
Notice that there’s difference between ‘principle’ and ‘belief’. The former is a fact, while the later is an opinion that author belief to be true. In reality belief may be wrong, but not the principle.
Historical Data:
Similarly, consider the following example:
The stock market has provided 7% returns annually for the past two years. Hence the expected returns of stock market would be 7% next year.
The author made his point by analyzing previous trend i.e historical data and then extrapolate that into the future to draw the conclusion.
Statistical Data:
As the name suggests, the author uses statistical data as the basis to make his point. For instance,
Since we have been maintaining records, humanity has experienced no more than two major earthquakes per decade. Since we have already seen two major earthquakes this decade, it is unlikely that we will see any more catastrophes for years to come.
In this argument, the author states statistical data. Based on this statistical data and the fact about this decade, he made his point afterward.
Probability:
Sometimes, the author consider information about probability of an event and then make his point based on that information. For instance,
Experts say that there is an 80% chance that New York Rangers will win tonight. However, since the Mayor of New York is betting on the game, the New York rangers will surely win.
Here you can see that the author made his point based on some chances of an event.
Similarity/Difference:
Often the author takes an observation about certain event, and then he either makes a similarity or states a difference between that event and some other event. Finally he concludes that such an observation can also be seen with the other event or cannot be seen with the other event. For instance,
John and Simon, brothers with an age difference of 5 years, have shown extremely similar growth patters. John was 3 feet tall when he was 3 years old and so is Simon. Therefore, Simon will gain another 1.5 feet next year just as John did.
In this argument, the author first identified similarity of the two events and then made his point on basis of this similarity.
Let’s come with the actual exam type of questions, rather than simple one.
Baseball and cricket balls have similar weight and construction. To hit a baseball ball 90 meters or more, one needs a bat swing of 160 degrees. Since the baseball bat transfers more thrust to the ball than a cricket bat does, one needs to swing the cricket bat more than 160 degrees to hit a cricket ball 90 meters or more.
In the argument above, the author reasons by doing which of the following?
A. By forming a hypothesis to explain the similarity between cricket and basketball.
B. By Interpreting similarity between two sports to define success in cricket.
C. By using a technique to achieve a task in one sport and extending the same technique to achieve the same task in another sport.
D. By Speculating that due to their similarities, how one sports may have evolved from the other.
E. Establishing the superiority equipment used in one sports over the other.
Answer Explanation:
Choice A: There’s no formation of hypothesis, rather it uses some facts. So this is clearly incorrect.
Choice B: The point of the author is not to define success in cricket. So this choice is also incorrect.
Choice C: This choice is almost similar to the organization (i.e structure) of the argument. The author did exactly the same thing is mentioned in this choice. i.e, using a technique in a sport, in another sport to achieve some result. But let’s analyze other choices as well.
Choice D: The point of the author was not to speculate that one sports evolved from other. This choice is out of scope.
Choice E: The argument do not show any superiority of one sports equipment over other sport equipment. So it is also incorrect.
Thus, choice D portrays correct reasoning used in the argument.
Sometimes it is happenstance that two person conversation is part of the argument. And question ask that how second person respond to the first person statement etc. Such question is also under the method of reasoning type of questions. The responses are of the following categories:
Provide new information:
The new information can be ‘Principle’, ‘Belief’, ‘Historical data’, ‘Statistical data’, ‘Probability’, and ‘Similarity/Difference’ etc as discussed earlier. For instance,
Newton: An object when let go from a height would fall down on the ground.
Astronaut: But while standing on boon, earth’s satellite, when I dropped an apple from a height, it kept floating in the air.
Astronaut respond to Newton statement in which of the following way?
The correct answer would be that Astronaut refutes Newton statement with a historical data.
Newton: An object when let go from a height would fall down on the ground.
Astronaut: In an experiment with 100 objects, half of the objects with density less than 1 kept on floating when dropped from a height of 1000 meters.
Astronaut respond to Newton statement in which of the following way?
The correct answer would be that Astronaut refutes Newton statement with a statistical data.
Similarly,
Newton: An object when let go from a height would fall down on the ground.
Astronaut: This is true only in a high gravity environment. In low gravity environment, there is equal probability for an object to go up or down when dropped from a height.
Astronaut respond to Newton statement in which of the following way?
The correct answer would be that Astronaut refutes Newton statement with a probability.
Shed light on the argument:
This can further be categorized into three types:
Interpret differently:
Let’s consider the example below:
Drug tester: In the field trial of the Viax, 95% of the recipients showed little or no side effects. Only 2% developed serious complications. Therefore, even after paying for potential litigation and medical costs, Viax could still be very profitable for Merck.
Chief Scientist: 2% complication rate is a lot. In the past drugs that have been successful have had less than 1% complication rate. Even one fatal complication could wipe away the profits.
The Chief Scientist respond to the Drug tester in which of the following way?
The correct answer would be that the Chief Scientist refute the Drug tester claim by interpreting his reasoning in different way. The significance and interpretation of 2% complication rate is different for the two people.
Show ignored aspect:
Let’s consider the example below:
Drug tester: In the field trial of the Viax, 95% of the recipients showed little or no side effects. Only 2% developed serious complications. Therefore, even after paying for potential litigation and medical costs, Viax could still be very profitable for Merck.
Chief Scientist: What about the damage caused to Merck brand due to the 2% complication. This could impact the probability of our entire product line.
The Chief Scientist respond to the Drug tester in which of the following way?
The correct answer would be that the Chief Scientist refute the Drug tester claim by highlighting the aspect that the Drug tester ignored to address.
Question the information:
Let’s consider the example below:
Drug tester: In the field trial of the Viax, 95% of the recipients showed little or no side effects. Only 2% developed serious complications. Therefore, even after paying for potential litigation and medical costs, Viax could still be very profitable for Merck.
Chief Scientist: We need to review your categorization of serious complication before we come to the conclusion. We also need to consider whether you included the diverse enough sample to make generic conclusion.
The Chief Scientist respond to the Drug tester in which of the following way?
The correct answer would be that the Chief Scientist neither supports nor refutes the Drug tester claim for having lack of information to draw fair conclusion.
Lastly, let’s discuss a difficult questions scenario:
It is often believed that exceptional performers have gifted genes. However, Malcom Gladwell in his book Outliers proves that exceptional performance is a result of thousands of hours of hard work and being at the right place at the right time. Therefore it can be concluded that anyone who works hard and is a bit lucky can be an exceptional performer.
The author challenges the accepted belief on exceptional performers by doing which of the following?
A. Finding the flaw in the reasoning behind the established belief and providing evidence to support his position.
B. Citing Malcom Gladwell work and extending it to make his point.
C. Citing Malcom Gladwell quotes on inadequacy of the established belief.
D. Speculating his theory based on a popular belief.
E. Extending the existing belief to cover new ground.
Answer Explanation:
First of all, the author cites Malcom Gladwell, therefore all other choices i.e A, D and E are eliminated.
Choice B: It is indeed the correct choice. The author exactly citing the Malcom Gladwell work mentioned in Malcom’s book and extend that to make his point.
Choice C: As the author did not only cited the quote of Malcome Gladwell, but also made his point by extending the citation. Thus this choice is incorrect.
Thus choice B is correct answer.